We’re pleased to share this month’s INV: The Manhattan Inventory Report with you. The headline: Property supply, as we measure it, has fallen month over month. But there’s an important caveat- our metric of “months of inventory” also includes the pace of sales in its calculation. So, despite there being lower supply, the overall “months of inventory” is actually higher than it was a year ago- meaning that properties are taking slightly longer to sell today.

And while there is talk about an inventory shortage in the Manhattan Real Estate market, the numbers do not exactly tell that story. First take a look at our same report from September 2021. You’ll see that the property levels at that time were only about 13% higher than today. 

Is a total decrease of 800 units on the market such an inventory crisis? 

Compare that drop in to other markets. There were 8600 properties on the market in New York when our business relaunched post-COVID.  We are still only down 32% (to 6000 apartments) from that high. Inventory levels are at or near historic lows in other major markets. Last quarter, inventory was down nearly 70% in Westchester (The NYC Suburbs) since 2019 and prices were UP more than 25%.

New construction is thought to be easing the shortage in many markets, but the National Association of Realtors notes in a recent report that for every 19 new jobs added in the NY-NJ-PA area, there is only ONE new house being built! With unemployment nearly nonexistent, then, the outlying areas aren’t looking good at the moment.

Meanwhile, Brooklyn buyers are continuing to suffer, too; the median sales price rose above $1mm for the first time since 2018. Our friends at the excellent real estate analytic site UrbanDigs describe the bifurcation of the Brooklyn and Manhattan markets as well here.

What seems to be going on in Manhattan, then, is not an inventory shortage, but an inspiration shortage. Buyers need a steady hand more than ever to guide them through a higher interest rate environment, and to point out the data worth considering. And sellers need our help to properly price their homes. There are lots of opportunities in this market for both. Don’t believe the hype. Believe the data.

Drilling down on property type, condos have nearly identical inventory levels as this time in 2022. And while coops are down 10% year over year, is that enough of a difference to make hay about?

To learn more about the actual real estate market, and how to navigate it, be in touch with us. We’d love to help them. 

Thank you! Scott & The HRT