I have already called the bottom of the real estate market in Manhattan. And as this goes to “print,” I will be doing a webinar all about a real estate market which has been unleashed by lower mortgage rates and higher demand.
Now, we’re past MLK, which is the unofficial soft opening of the Spring market. The big reveal is around March 1st. And the swirl of discussions is happening away from the public ear: Is it time to list? Should we list early to get ahead of everyone else? What do we need to do to prepare our property for market? What should the pricing be? People are optimistic and pessimistic. Many others don’t know what to think.
Right now, the best thing we can do is define the ground rules of a healthy housing market:
- It features a mortgage rate environment in which homeowners, many of whom have 3% mortgage rates right now, will consider selling.
- It features a mortgage rate environment in which buyers will feel more confident making moves.
- There will be a segment of buyers and sellers who have seen sufficient social proof that others are buying and selling already.
- Buyers will feel educated enough to be sure they haven’t missed inventory, or information. In other words, they’re over their FOMO.
- There’s certainty in the air, finally enough to overcome the ambient noise of doubt and concern.
Are we there yet?
Here are a few ways I’m getting to the answer:
- I’m speaking to those on the leading edge: Mortgage brokers, Wealth advisors, other real estate agents who do a lot of business.
- I’m speaking to as many buyers as I can, either those I’m working with, or those I meet at our listings. Their mood is very telling.
- I’m speaking with our in-house economist to get the 30,000 view of the overall economy.
- I’m tracking the mood of the media headlines.
- I’m speaking with other thought leaders in New York and beyond.
I am getting more comfortable with the information, and closer to a conclusion.
You could do all of this work yourself, too. Or you can use the obvious shortcut: Be in touch.