First Quarter 2014 Thoughts


The First Quarter Report is out!

The British are coming!

The Russians are coming!

Asia is coming!

The Middle East is coming!
Here is the link.
The headline news will make sellers drool.

Unfortunately, the numbers are skewed on both sides.

Year over year, Q1 2013 was down because of the massive

number of end of 2012 closings – to avoid tax increases.

So the numbers look amazing now.

Don’t get too excited


Don’t forget to factor in the very large condo closings around the city that can definitely skew the numbers,

in such a small sample size.

This happened when 15 CPW closed –

and a $43mm closing at One Madison, along with a ton at Walker Tower, 737 Park, etc., will do this as well!
The little side notes are what interest me, specifically on the West Side:
“All size categories of apartments located on the West Side saw a double digit increase in their average price compared to the first quarter of 2013, led by a 24% gain in one-bedrooms.”
It’s essentially what I’ve been waiting for.

The one-bedrooms appear to have caught up, for the most part, exceeding their highs pre-2008/9 crash.

We’ll continue to see things catch up.

Walkups are next.
The other interesting item to note is that the average unit spent 80 days on the market.

That’s down from 123 as recently as last year.

AMAZING.
My only fear is that sellers will be even more unrealistic than ever!

Of course,

since I continue to break records in buildings on the West Side, some of that greediness may not be unrealistic.

Incredible, really.
 

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