Seasonality
Historically Speaking, these are the seasons of New York City’s real estate market:
Spring: (Q1 through most of Q2) The busiest sales season (more inventory, and brisker sales)
Summer: (End of Q2 through most of Q3) Rental Season through Labor Day, slower for sales from at least June 15th-September 1st
Fall: (End of Q3 until Thanksgiving) 2nd busiest sales season
Winter: (Thanksgiving until March): Our Slower Time, Ramping up in March
So agents in New York City are lucky to have a busy market. That is, there isn’t that much downtime for our market, even in the summer, since the rental market is crazy, and that can often drive buying decisions (when rental prices are insane).
Then Interest Rates Rose to 7%
The springs of 2022 and 2023, however, looked very different. Mortgage rates had crushed typical sales volume in Manhattan. Inventory never rose, and sales were down. Would 2024 be a repeat?
Apparently not. According to a report from Miller Samuel, Q2 sales increased 12.2% from the previous year to over 2,600—the first green shoots in seven quarters. The trophy real estate market (homes $10 million and up) even saw a 6.8% rise compared to Q2 2023. And although the median price of homes dropped slightly, to $1.18 million, they are still near record highs.
Amid this increased activity, apartment sales involving mortgages also rose by 15.1% from a year ago, according to Bloomberg. What do we make of this? Fewer buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop to make their purchasing decisions.
It Gets Better
A Federal Reserve rate cut looks more and more likely. With increased buyer activity and lower mortgage rates not far behind, it looks like we may already be past the bottom of the market. Sellers should take note.
The Water Is Warm
So the water is warm this summer. Hop on in!
August is nearly here. There are buyers in the market now, desperately looking for good inventory. Sellers should be considering how to position their properties to take advantage of a healthier market.
Don’t just take my word for it. We have already sold $130 million of properties this year, plenty of it this July. The smart money is listening. -Scott & The HRT