While it has been about four years since the lows of the market in 2009, that time for me seems both far, far away, and still strongly memorable.
Empty open houses, few bids, few inquiries, few buyers who wanted to move forward.
The busy days of 2005-2008 seemed incredibly far away for that year.
Some Painful 2008 Memories
As 2013 moves forward- can we already nearing Memorial Day?- we’re seeing velocity in the market that makes those four quarters (Q4’08-Q3’09) seem like a blip.
Here are a few thoughts I’ll juxtapose next to the troubling image alongside:
- Best and Final bidding on nearly every two-bedroom condominium which hits the market
- $1500 per square foot is becoming commonplace, and $2000-2500 per square foot more so for larger units or new construction
- Mortgage Contingencies starting to disappear for many deals
- Bidding wars on many Upper West Side properties in general, certainly two-bedrooms and larger
- A trickle of inventory, still down 30% year over year
- $5mm and up property inventory down 26% year over year
- Rents looking markedly more expensive than purchasing event at today’s pricing
- Buyers growing increasingly hostile, aggressive, frustrated, annoyed, and depressed
This weekend’s NYTimes discusses the uber-luxury properties on the market right now.
Prices continue their rise because the properties still look cheap.
Not just to foreign money, but to New Yorkers as well.
How cheap does New York City property look right now compared to other world markets?
Are we in a bubble again in New York?
I would argue that with rates where we are, the rent vs buy calculation (see here for the New York Times version here) still makes lots of sense.
Add in the world uncertainty of how governmental policies are affecting Europeans, South Americans and Americans alike, it is no surprise to me that hard assets (perhaps except Gold at the moment) are in hot demand.
Buyers who wait often find themselves with little to consider- when everything they saw on a Sunday is gone by the following Friday.
If you’re thinking about selling, you have as
little competition for your apartment as there has been in over 15 years.
Demand hasn’t been this high even in the rollicking times of 2005-2008 in New York City, especially in Brooklyn!
Our Brown Harris Stevens chief economist sees no short-term end to the fiscal policies of the US government, and nothing drastic changing the atmosphere of the marketplace.
So are we in a housing crisis?
Most likely yet.
Would I be a buyer in this market?
Certainly, and I have been- I just sold and bought last quarter.
Opportunities are there.
You just need the right team to make it happen.
The market could very well go beyond the craziness that we’re seeing now.
For now, hold onto your seats.